Take the first day, after the U.S. election is held, by which all 5 of the following news outlets have published headlines agreeing on a winner (even if their prediction is incorrect): nytimes.com, foxnews.com, cnn.com, msnbc.com, news.bbc.co.uk . Call that day "Result Day."
Let X = the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on the first business day after Result Day. Let Y = the closing value of the DJIA from the business day prior to Result Day. (Thus, X-Y reflects the market gain over 2 business days, or 1 business day if Result Day happens on a weekend.)
If a Republican president has been elected, this claim pays 50 + ((X-Y)/Y * 1000). If a non-Republican president has been elected, this claim pays 50 - ((X-Y)/Y * 1000). Results get capped at 100/0 for a 5% loss or rally.
For example, this claim would pay: 100 if Bush wins and the Dow rises 5% or more. 100 if Kerry wins and the Dow falls 5% or more. 75 if Bush wins and the Dow rises 2.5%. 75 if Kerry wins and the Dow falls 2.5%. 50 if either candidate wins and the Dow stays put. 25 if Bush wins and the Dow falls 2.5%. 25 if Kerry wins and the Dow rises 2.5%. 0 if Bush wins and the Dow falls 5% or more. 0 if Kerry wins and the Dow rises 5% or more.
None